On the Problem of Planning in the Playground of Probability

09/28/2007 7:06 AM – 7:28 AM

Up then and dreaming of possible worlds, gear lists and quiet land. The rain and clouds befitting a pseudonym. Coming up from the bottom to sit at the top, feeling the breeze essay across the surface, eyes closed.

There’s words in it and thick calluses for walking long ways. The abstract concrete can get a hold, geeking out is enjoyment for a geek. Lists then, and many of them. But there are others in the woods and where one is and how to get there and what will we do when we get to the thing. Where do the ideas find their form? and How do you get there from here. The words on the edges falling off into that which lies below the horizon. Neither here nor there. It’s only words and they aren’t here for this. This is warm-up.

What is perceived is what is, but the frequency with which that which was not previously perceived intrudes upon the system makes prediction difficult. There is a need to act, but to act is to discard data. But this is always so. One looks at the system and assesses its probable outcome. One must, because one must act. But probable outcomes are notoriously unreliable. The meteorite and the pot of gold both obtain, if only rarely, but those rare events often have massive effects that skew the system to chaos before settling into a new predictability. But one must act. Chance favors the prepared mind. A flexible rigid system accommodating chance while following a reasonable course of action. How hard can that be? Pssht. Stupid, stupid reality.